Tropical Storm Trudy forecast to strengthen

Tropical Storm Trudy was located near 11.2° north and 97.0° west at 0300 UTC on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, with maximum sustained winds of about 40 knots, or 45 miles per hour (75 kilometers per hour).

The wind estimate differs between accounts: one gives about 40 knots, while another gives about 65 kilometers per hour. The system was forecast to move generally northwestward to west-northwestward through 72 hours before moving inland over western Mexico later this weekend. The forecast calls for Trudy to emerge in the southern Gulf of California by early next week, but its track is difficult and uncertain, with higher-than-normal guidance spread from 72 hours onward.

Trudy is forecast to become a hurricane within 24 hours and approach Mexico’s coast as a major hurricane later this week. The official forecast projects major-hurricane status between Saturday and Sunday. A major hurricane is Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with sustained winds of at least 178 kilometers per hour.

Forecast positions show maximum winds of 80 knots at 1200 UTC on October 15, 100 knots at 0000 UTC on October 16, and 115 knots at 0000 UTC on October 17. At 120 hours, the intensity forecast shows Trudy remaining a hurricane after exiting Mexico, although that outcome is highly sensitive to land interaction; if the system tracks farther inland, its circulation may rapidly dissipate.

The cumulative probability for L Cardenas by 120 hours is 72 percent for sustained winds of at least 34 knots, 37 percent for at least 50 knots, and 19 percent for at least 64 knots. Manzanillo’s corresponding probabilities are 64 percent, 39 percent, and 24 percent. For San Jose Cabo, the cumulative probability of sustained winds of at least 34 knots is 5 percent.

For Puerto Vallarta and Bahía de Banderas, rain was reported along the maritime coastline, while the Vallarta coast was experiencing swell caused by the remnants of Simon. All beaches have a red flag. Hurricane Simon weakened to Category 1 off the coast of Jalisco.

The NHC and Mexican authorities had not issued specific advisories for Jalisco at the time covered by the report. Specialists said it was still too early to know where and with what intensity Trudy’s effects would be felt. Visitors should follow bulletins from Mexico’s National Meteorological Service, the NHC, and Civil Protection advisories, and check official channels before making decisions about travel, sea activities, or reservations.